Rabobank expects caution in global pork expansion amid growing uncertainty

Rabobank’s report for the first quarter of 2025 highlights that global producers remain cautious about expanding their herds. Factors such as rising political tensions, disease risks, and production costs fluctuations contribute to an uncertain outlook for the pork sector.

In its Global Pork Quarterly Q1 2025 report, Rabobank analyzes current and future trends in the global pork market. Despite a slight decline in production costs, producers remain cautious on herd expansion due to various economic and political uncertainties.

Production costs and climate factors

The financial institution notes that, although production costs are likely to continue to decline thanks to improved grain availability, weather conditions and geopolitical factors could significantly influence harvests and, consequently, input prices. For example, dry conditions in Argentina and delayed corn planting in Brazil could lead to slightly higher corn prices moving forward.

Political tensions and global trade

The pork market analysis highlights that rising political tensions are heightening risks for global trade in 2025. Recent turmoil in countries like South Korea and potential policy changes from the U.S. under President Donald Trump create great uncertainty regarding labor availability, capital distribution, and global trade. These dynamics could lead the pork industry to focus on short-term strategies and be more cautious with long-term investment.

Disease risks

Disease outbreaks continue to impact markets. Diseases like African swine fever in Asia and Europe, porcine respiratory and reproductive syndrome around the world, and a recent foot-and-mouth outbreak in Germany have disrupted global trade. The suspension of German pork imports in various countries showcases how diseases are challenging supply chains.

Non-negotiable biosecurity and efficient operation

In this scenario, the pork industry is facing a 2025 marked by challenges and uncertainties. Rabobank emphasizes that biosecurity will be a non-negotiable for the sector this year and that producers must carefully balance animal safety and health with smart investment strategies and production efficiency. Adapting to this changing and challenging environment will be a differentiating factor for the sector’s stability and growth in the coming years.